....Take a bow for the new revolution,
Smile and grin at the change all around,
Pick up my guitar and play,
Just like yesterday,
Then I'll get on my knees and pray,
We don't get fooled again."
- The Who
At 8.30 AM, Wednesday morning, an earthquake probably measuring between 4 and 5 on the richter scale shook this already nervous capitol city of Bishkek just a day after a week of street protests boiled over into a brutally brief confrontation with riot police. Unfortunately a few were hurt in the crackdown, one quite seriously, but considering that threats of violent outbursts by the opposition had been swirling around the city for the past six months, it's a miracle that this short spasm of rock-throwing and tear-gassing was all that materialized.
Moreover, perhaps this earthquake foreshadowed the event that would send tremors in the authoritarian halls of power throughout capitol cities of Central Asia. The government of Kyrgyzstan adopted one of the most progressive constitutions in the former Soviet Union, and for the first time the powers of the president of one of the post-Soviet countries were significantly weakend, while the power of the parliament was strengthened. The day President Bakiev approved the new constitution, President Islam Karimov, the ruthless dictator of Uzbekistan, offered his own amendments to the Uzbek constitution to supposedly give his 'rubber stamp' parliament more say in policy decisions. Few reasonable people take this gesture seriously, but it shows that undemocratic neighbors of Kyrgyzstan are watching events here closely. (Read Economist article on Central Asian reactions to events in Bishkek)
Much to the relief of residents of Bishkek, and perhaps the entire nation, threats of further violence and looting in the capitol abated as a compromise was reached on November 8th between Opposition and Pro-Bakiev/Government parliament members on the new constitution, which President Bakiev himself signed on November 9th. Fireworks and sparklers marked the celebration of the Opposition after confirmation of the compromise on the evening of the eighth. It seemed that all of their persistance, determination, organization and discipline to choose negotiation over violent confrontation paid off. As they dismantled their tents and yurts on Ala Too square, there was a general sense that democracy still had a chance in this country, that reform did not have to occur at the cost of further destabilization and even bloodshed.
And of course, the pro-Bakiev, pro-government camp also claimed victory since the tandem of President Bakiev and Prime Minister Kulov were able to retain their positions (Bakiev to serve out his term until 2010), albeit with diminished power. President Bakiev diplomatically framed it as a win-win situation for all parties: "The present document is a new step in the development of the Kyrgyz Republic's democracy and the perfecting of the constitutional foundations of our state, where there is a strong president, a strong parliament, a strong government, and a mature and responsible civil society."
On the evening of November 7th, October Revolution Day, after they 'defended the government' with the help of several hundred riot police and special forces officers, the hastily organized pro-Bakiev camp quickly took over the 'old square' between the parliament building and the massive Lenin statue (right across the street from our campus), establishing their own yurt village and sound system (which was far better than the opposition's, hmmmm...). They remained there even after the crisis subsided and celebrated for the next two days by blaring horrendous Kyrgyz pop music and sending up speaker after obnoxious speaker to decry the underhanded efforts of the scoundrel opposition and praise the patience and vision of their "Dear Leader," all within annoying proximity of my office window. The pro-Bakiev faithful were mostly made up of government employees who were forced to attend the rallies during the day, while the evening rallies were populated with drunken students from the Kyrgyz National University, who were forced to attend by their government-salaried teachers. Supposedly hundreds of Bakiev supporters from the southern city of Jalalabad, the president's hometown, flooded into the city to show their support as well, but mostly they milled about the downtown area in a drunken stupor looking to harrass young women and red bandana-wearing opposition supporters.
So will the Kyrgyz nation get fooled again? Will these constitutional changes make a difference in improving the widespread dysfunction of the government and finally set the country on the path of stability and prosperity enjoyed by most of its neighbors. Were the leaders of the opposition truly fighting for real democratic change in this country, or were they conveniently banding together to simply usurp their slice of the power pie that was denied to them following the 2005 Tulip Revolution. While not everyone in the opposition movement has clean hands or intentions, several honest brokers seemed to shine through over the past week, including the leader of the Coalition for Democracy and Civil Society, Edil Baisalov. He's been so outspoken about seeking transparency and reform in government that someone hired a hooded thug to drive a knife into his skull last April. Fortunately, the thug failed to kill Edil, and he lived on serve an instrumental role for the opposition, working tirelessly to keep everyone on message and non-violent.
But, the opposition refuses to stop pestering the government, even after the momentous adoption of the new constitution. Just yesterday they called for the resignation of Prime Minister Kulov, claiming that "his voluntary departure" would decrease the risk of a new political crisis arising. Though Kulov hails from the north of the country, where most of the opposition movement comes from, he has since fallen out of favor with them because of his tight alliance with the president. Of course, Kulov politely decline their offer to step down. In any event, I think it was remarkable that all this change occurred without a revolution, without real violence, without street justice. This all happened really because though freedom of expression exists here in theory, there is precious little space for public debate of these vital issues. So they took it to the streets. And compromise won. Perhaps we owe it to the relatively mellow nature of the Kyrgyz people (gross generalizaton), or perhaps democracy has a real chance here. I just hope they don't bring start blaring that god-awful music outside my office again; otherwise I'm going to pick up my guitar and play, as loud as I can.
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